What the Shape of Europe is according to
Łukasz Pawłowski
– Aspen Young Leaders

Łukasz Pawłowski

Managing Editor, Kultura Liberalna
Aspen Young Leaders Program Alumnus

Paling into insignificance?

Visegrad Group’s – and along with it the whole region’s – significance in the EU is, unfortunately, diminishing. Some of the reasons behind this process are beyond our control. But the local political class does its share to accelerate the process.

After Brexit finally becomes reality, over 85 percent of the EU’s GDP will be produced in the Eurozone countries. This simple fact must change the balance of power in the European Union and therefore its priorities. Our region seems to be unprepared for these changes. Out of V4 countries, only Slovakia belongs to the Eurozone club.

What will happen to the others? At the last edition of the Aspen Young Leaders Program in Ustroń, Polish long-time MEP, Jan Olbrycht, claimed that Brussels will no longer try to compel any country to join the common currency. It does not have to – if Central European states want to truly participate in decision-making processes, they have to join the new core of the Union. Otherwise, their influence on EU policies – already weakened – will diminish even further.

The consequences of Brexit only shed more light, however, on already visible trends. After the last European elections and the selection process for the top EU officials, it is obvious that the organization is moving to the West, with our region paling more into insignificance. Out of the top five posts all went to representatives of Western European countries and – except for the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs – to citizens of the so-called “Inner Six”.

All these developments only illustrate far deeper problems that have troubled V4 states for some time now.

First of all, group members themselves have divergent goals in areas as important as energy policy or the EU’s policy towards its most significant foreign partners, including Russia.

Secondly, and even more importantly, the group presents hardly any positive – not to mention ambitious – plans to reform the European Union. Its calls to take into account the particularities of the region in drafting new policy proposals are nothing more than a thinly veiled effort to thwart any significant reforms the EU needs.

If Central Europe wants to play an essential role in the European Union, it must come up with its own constructive agenda. Calls to bring “more sovereignty” back to the states are vague at best and will not solve our problems. On the contrary, as the case of Brexit indicates, they may have quite unintended consequences.

The text was created on the occasion of the Aspen Annual Conference “The Shape of Central Europe 2019”. Short Aspen Young Leaders’ insights on the current situation in Central Europe were published in the conference book.